10.6084/M9.FIGSHARE.C.6238213
Xin-Xin Yan
Xin-Xin
Yan
Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences & Peking Union Medical College
Juan Zhu
Juan
Zhu
Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences & Peking Union Medical College
Yan-Jie Li
Yan-Jie
Li
Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences & Peking Union Medical College
Meng-Di Cao
Meng-Di
Cao
Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences & Peking Union Medical College
Xin Wang
Xin
Wang
Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences & Peking Union Medical College
Hong Wang
Hong
Wang
Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences & Peking Union Medical College
Cheng-Cheng Liu
Cheng-Cheng
Liu
Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences & Peking Union Medical College
Jing Wang
Jing
Wang
Beijing Center for Disease Prevention and Control
Yang Li
Yang
Li
Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences & Peking Union Medical College
Ju-Fang Shi
Ju-Fang
Shi
0000-0001-5283-9762
Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences & Peking Union Medical College
Estimating disability-adjusted life years for breast cancer and the impact of screening in female populations in China, 2015–2030: an exploratory prevalence-based analysis applying local weights
Abstract Background Most cancer disability-adjusted life year (DALY) studies worldwide have used broad, generic disability weights (DWs); however, differences exist among populations and types of cancers. Using breast cancer as example, this study aimed to estimate the population-level DALYs in females in China and the impact of screening as well as applying local DWs. Methods Using multisource data, a prevalence-based model was constructed. (1) Overall years lived with disability (YLDs) were estimated by using numbers of prevalence cases, stage-specific proportions, and local DWs for breast cancer. Numbers of females and new breast cancer cases as well as local survival rates were used to calculate the number of prevalence cases. (2) Years of life lost (YLLs) were estimated using breast cancer mortality rates, female numbers and standard life expectancies. (3) The prevalence of and mortality due to breast cancer and associated DALYs from 2020 to 2030 were predicted using Joinpoint regression. (4) Assumptions considered for screening predictions included expanding coverage, reducing mortality due to breast cancer and improving early-stage proportion for breast cancer. Results In Chinese females, the estimated number of breast cancer DALYs was 2251.5 thousand (of 17.3% were YLDs) in 2015, which is predicted to increase by 26.7% (60.3% among those aged ≥ 65 years) in 2030 (2852.8 thousand) if the screening coverage (25.7%) stays unchanged. However, if the coverage can be achieved to 40.7% in 2030 (deduced from the “Healthy China Initiative”), DALYs would decrease by 1.5% among the screened age groups. Sensitivity analyses found that using local DWs would change the base-case values by ~ 10%. Conclusion Estimates of DALYs due to breast cancer in China were lower (with a higher proportion of YLDs) than Global Burden of Disease Study numbers (2527.0 thousand, 8.2% were YLDs), suggesting the importance of the application of population-specific DWs. If the screening coverage remains unchanged, breast cancer-caused DALYs would continue to increase, especially among elderly individuals.
Medicine
Biotechnology
Environmental Sciences not elsewhere classified
Biological Sciences not elsewhere classified
Mathematical Sciences not elsewhere classified
Cancer
Plant Biology
figshare
2022
2022-10-08
2022-10-08
Collection
CC BY 4.0