10.6077/PFSD-0V93
Ortiz-Bobea, Ariel
Ariel
Ortiz-Bobea
Cornell University
Ault, Toby R.
Toby R.
Ault
Cornell University
Carrillo, Carlos M.
Carlos M.
Carrillo
University of Maryland, College Park
Chambers, Robert G.
Robert G.
Chambers
University of Maryland, College Park
Lobell, David B.
David B.
Lobell
Stanford University
Reproduction Materials for: Anthropogenic Climate Change Has Slowed Global Agricultural Productivity Growth
Cornell Institute for Social and Economic Research
2020
Dataset
en
Agricultural research has fostered productivity growth, but the historical influence of anthropogenic climate change on that growth has not been quantified. We develop a robust econometric model of weather effects on global agricultural total factor productivity (TFP) and combine this model with counterfactual climate scenarios to evaluate impacts of past climate trends on TFP. Our baseline model indicates that anthropogenic climate change has reduced global agricultural TFP by about 21% since 1961, a slowdown that is equivalent to losing the last 9 years of productivity growth. The effect is substantially more severe (a reduction of ~30-33%) in warmer regions such as Africa and Latin America and the Caribbean. We also find that global agriculture has grown more vulnerable to ongoing climate change.