10.5286/UKERC.EDC.000718
Baringa Partners LLP
UK Energy Research Centre Energy Data Centre (UKERC EDC)
2030 Electricity Price Time Series: Modelling of hourly retail cost stacks in 2030 under three scenarios
ETI
2018
Energy Storage and Distribution
OTHER CROSS-CUTTING TECHNOLOGIES or RESEARCH (Energy Economics)
en
Text
pdf
<ul><li>This study investigates the costs that domestic electricity suppliers in Great Britain might face in 2030</li><li>Projections are made based on the assumption that, unless formally announced, no changes are made to today’s electricity market arrangements</li><li>Particular focus is given to the hourly variation and seasonal shape of costs faced by suppliers</li><li>Hourly retail cost stacks in 2030 are modelled for the average domestic electricity consumer in the East Midlands</li></ul>Modelling was carried out under three scenarios:<ol><li>National Grid Two Degrees (NG 2 Degrees): A relatively high demand scenario, with relatively high renewables, nuclear and imports, but reduced levels of CCGT</li><li>ETI Long-Term Role of Gas (ETI LT ROG):The highest-demand scenario modelled, with high levels of renewables, CCGT and storage, but reduced nuclear capacity</li><li>ETI Consumers, Vehicles and Energy Integration (ETI EVEI): With demand the lowest of the three, this scenario has the highest levels of nuclear, but the lowest levels of renewables and storage</li></ol>These scenarios were drawn from public sources, and were chosen to represent a range of carbon intensities and levels of renewable generation, as well as different levels of electrification (e.g. of transport) and flexible demand the modelling outputs are intended to illustrate:<ol><li>Trends in supplier costs that might occur between 2017 and 2030 if market arrangements remain unchanged</li><li>Differences between scenarios that can be seen, reflecting different technology and market assumptions</li><li>Issues that could result if arrangements remain unchanged over horizon to 2030</li></ol>This Technical Report is one of the deliverables associated with this stage of the project. Associated deliverables are:<ul><li>A word document providing interpretation of the findings in this slide deck</li><li>A high level viewpoint for senior stakeholders summarising the work, results and insights</li><li>An Excel workbook containing the key inputs and a<br />full set of hourly outputs by scenario</li></ul><!-- CO2 -->