10.5281/ZENODO.4026721
Speth, Daniel
Daniel
Speth
Gnann, Till
Till
Gnann
Plötz, Patrick
Patrick
Plötz
Wietschel, Martin
Martin
Wietschel
George, Jan
Jan
George
Future regional distribution of electric vehicles in Germany
Zenodo
2020
electric vehicle (EV)
fleet
Market Development
modelling
user behaviour
2020-09-12
Conference paper
https://zenodo.org/record/4026722
10.5281/zenodo.4026722
https://zenodo.org/communities/evs33
Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International
Open Access
<p>Electrification as an option to decarbonize road transport leads to an increasing number of electric vehicles in Germany. However, the stock of electric vehicles is not evenly distributed regionally. The local distribution of electric vehicles is particularly important from an energy system perspective in order to be able to estimate future grid loads. Here, we use multiple linear regression to distribute a German-wide market diffusion of electric vehicles to 401 NUTS3-areas in Germany. Current regional vehicle stocks and regional development data (e.g. population, income, and spatial structure) are used as independent variables. We combine these variables with forecasts for spatial development and obtain a regionalized electric vehicle market diffusion for Germany. First results suggest a concentration of BEV and PHEV stocks in southwestern Germany and in large cities in the medium-term future.</p>