10.5061/DRYAD.W3R2280Q4
Nomoto, Hanna
0000-0002-2024-7866
Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zurich
Alexander, Jake
Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zurich
Dataset: Drivers of local extinction risk in alpine plants under warming
climate
Dryad
dataset
2021
2022-02-12T00:00:00Z
2021-10-11T00:00:00Z
en
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4555809
https://doi.org/10.1111/ele.13727
1015650 bytes
5
CC0 1.0 Universal (CC0 1.0) Public Domain Dedication
The scarcity of local plant extinctions following recent climate change
has been explained by demographic inertia and lags in the displacement of
resident species by novel species, generating an “extinction debt”. We
established a transplant experiment to disentangle the contribution of
these processes to local extinction risk of four alpine plants in the
Swiss Alps. Projected population growth (λ) derived from integral
projection models was reduced by 0.07/°C of warming on average, while
novel species additionally decreased λ by 0.15 across warming levels.
Effects of novel species on predicted extinction time were greatest at
warming <2°C for two species. Projected population declines under
both warming and with novel species were primarily driven by increased
mortality. Our results suggest that extinction debt can be explained by a
combination of demographic inertia and lags in novel species
establishment, with the latter being particularly important for some
species under low levels of warming.