10.5061/DRYAD.Q8D7D
Carroll, Carlos
Klamath Center for Conservation Research, Orleans, CA 95556, United
States of America
Lawler, Joshua J.
University of Washington
Roberts, David R.
University of Alberta
University of Freiburg
Hamann, Andreas
University of Alberta
Data from: Biotic and climatic velocity identify contrasting areas of
vulnerability to climate change
Dryad
dataset
2016
velocity of climate change
climatic niche models
2016-09-30T00:00:00Z
2016-09-30T00:00:00Z
en
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0140486
7917538 bytes
1
CC0 1.0 Universal (CC0 1.0) Public Domain Dedication
Metrics that synthesize the complex effects of climate change are
essential tools for mapping future threats to biodiversity and predicting
which species are likely to adapt in place to new climatic conditions,
disperse and establish in areas with newly suitable climate, or face the
prospect of extirpation. The most commonly used of such metrics is the
velocity of climate change, which estimates the speed at which species
must migrate over the earth’s surface to maintain constant climatic
conditions. However, “analog-based” velocities, which represent the actual
distance to where analogous climates will be found in the future, may
provide contrasting results to the more common form of velocity based on
local climate gradients. Additionally, whereas climatic velocity reflects
the exposure of organisms to climate change, resultant biotic effects are
dependent on the sensitivity of individual species as reflected in part by
their climatic niche width. This has motivated development of biotic
velocity, a metric which uses data on projected species range shifts to
estimate the velocity at which species must move to track their climatic
niche. We calculated climatic and biotic velocity for the Western
Hemisphere for 1961–2100, and applied the results to example ecological
and conservation planning questions, to demonstrate the potential of such
analog-based metrics to provide information on broad-scale patterns of
exposure and sensitivity. Geographic patterns of biotic velocity for 2954
species of birds, mammals, and amphibians differed from climatic velocity
in north temperate and boreal regions. However, both biotic and climatic
velocities were greatest at low latitudes, implying that threats to
equatorial species arise from both the future magnitude of climatic
velocities and the narrow climatic tolerances of species in these regions,
which currently experience low seasonal and interannual climatic
variability. Biotic and climatic velocity, by approximating lower and
upper bounds on migration rates, can inform conservation of species and
locally-adapted populations, respectively, and in combination with
backward velocity, a function of distance to a source of colonizers
adapted to a site’s future climate, can facilitate conservation of
diversity at multiple scales in the face of climate change.
Biotic and climatic velocity for the Western HemisphereThis zip file
includes raster data representing biotic and climatic velocity for the
Western Hemisphere for the period 1961 to 2100. We modeled velocity using
climatic niche models originally published in Lawler et al. 2009.
Projected climate-induced faunal change in the Western Hemisphere. Ecology
90:588-597. We used the code in the included R script to model biotic
velocity for each individual species in Lawler et al. (2009). We then
summarized velocity across all species in the three taxa groups, and
further summarized across 10 climate-change general circulation models. We
also modeled climatic velocity for each of 10 climate-change general
circulation models. Each data file is a 50-kilometer resolution ESRI ASCII
grid.velocity.zip
South America
North America