10.5061/DRYAD.KSN02V749
Peng, Bo
0000-0001-8225-2284
Baylor College of Medicine
Zhou, Wen
Baylor College of Medicine
Pettit, Rowland
Baylor College of Medicine
Yu, Patrick
Corporate Medical Advisors
Matos, Peter
Corporate Medical Advisors
Greninger, Alexander
University of Washington
McCashin, Julie
International S.O.S.
Amos, Christopher
Baylor College of Medicine
Optimal test-assisted quarantine strategies for COVID-19
Dryad
dataset
2021
COVID-19
Epidemiology
Health policy
Epidemiology
Infection control
Public health
quarantine
2021-05-24T00:00:00Z
2021-05-24T00:00:00Z
en
https://github.com/ictr/covid19-outbreak-simulator
https://doi.org/10.1093/jamiaopen/ooaa074
433209 bytes
5
CC0 1.0 Universal (CC0 1.0) Public Domain Dedication
Objective: To evaluate the effectiveness of SARS-CoV-2 testing on
shortening the duration of quarantines for COVID-19 and to identify the
most effective choices of testing schedules. Design: We performed
extensive simulations to evaluate the performance of quarantine strategies
when one or more SARS-CoV-2 tests were administered during the quarantine.
Simulations were based on statistical models for the transmissibility and
viral loads of SARS-CoV-2 infections and the sensitivities of available
testing methods. Sensitivity analyses were performed to evaluate the
impact of perturbations in model assumptions on the outcomes of optimal
strategies. Results: We found that SARS-CoV-2 testing can effectively
reduce the length of a quarantine without compromising safety. A single
RT-PCR test performed before the end of quarantine can reduce quarantine
duration to 10 days. Two tests can reduce the duration to 8 days, and
three highly sensitive RT-PCR tests can justify a 6-day quarantine. More
strategic testing schedules and longer quarantines are needed if tests are
administered with less sensitive RT-PCR tests or antigen tests. Shorter
quarantines can be utilized for applications that tolerate a residual
post-quarantine transmission risk comparable to a 10-day quarantine.
Conclusions: Testing could substantially reduce the length of isolation,
reducing the physical and mental stress caused by lengthy quarantines.
With increasing capacity and lowered costs of SARS-CoV-2 tests,
test-assisted quarantines could be safer and more cost-effective than
14-day quarantines and warrant more widespread use.
The dataset consists of PQTR (post-quarantine transmission risk) and
observed test sensitivity for test-assisted quarantine strategies with
different duration and test strategies, under the assumption of either
mixed and simultaneous onset of infection. PQTR is calculated as the
occurrence of failures (infecting others after released from quarantine)
of at least 500K (mostly 1M) replicate simulations using the simulation
model described in the manuscript.
The dataset is in EXCEL format. Users can open it and search for
interested quarantine strategies using the filter feature of EXCEL.