10.5061/DRYAD.JM63XSJ7K
Potter, Tomos
0000-0003-3201-6130
University of Oxford
Bassar, Ronald D.
Williams College
Bentzen, Paul
Dalhousie University
Ruell, Emily W.
Colorado State University,
Torres-Dowdall, Julián
University of Konstanz
Handelsman, Corey A.
Colorado State University
Ghalambor, Cameron K.
Colorado State University
Travis, Joseph
Florida State University
Reznick, David N.
University of California, Riverside
Coulson, Tim
University of Oxford
Data from: Environmental change, if unaccounted, prevents detection of
cryptic evolution in a wild population
Dryad
dataset
2020
Ecology: evolutionary
Genetics: quantitative
Life history: evolution
Population: dynamics
Natural Environment Research Council
https://ror.org/02b5d8509
DTP studentship
National Science Foundation
https://ror.org/021nxhr62
EF-062362, DEB-1258231, DEB-1556884, and DEB-0846175.
University of Oxford
https://ror.org/052gg0110
Lamb and Flag scholarship
2020-07-24T00:00:00Z
2020-07-24T00:00:00Z
en
494459594 bytes
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CC0 1.0 Universal (CC0 1.0) Public Domain Dedication
Detecting contemporary evolution requires demonstrating that genetic
change has occurred. Mixed-effects models allow estimation of quantitative
genetic parameters and are widely used to study evolution in wild
populations. However, predictions of evolution based on these parameters
frequently fail to match observations. Furthermore, such studies often
lack an independent measure of evolutionary change against which to verify
predictions. Here, we applied three commonly used quantitative genetic
approaches to predict the evolution of size at maturity in a wild
population of Trinidadian guppies. Crucially, we tested our predictions
against evolutionary change observed in common garden experiments
performed on samples from the same population. We show that standard
quantitative genetic models underestimated or failed to detect the cryptic
evolution of this trait as demonstrated by the common garden experiments.
The models failed because: 1) size at maturity and fitness both decreased
with increases in population density, 2) offspring experienced higher
population densities than their parents, and 3) selection on size was
strongest at high densities. When we accounted for environmental change,
predictions better matched observations in the common garden experiments,
although substantial uncertainty remained. Our results demonstrate that
predictions of evolution are unreliable if environmental change is not
appropriately captured in models.
This dataset includes: guppy_data.csv - individual phenotypic, fitness and
environmental data from the study population guppy_ped.csv - pedigree for
the study population common_garden.csv - phenotypic data from the common
garden experiments In addition, we include code for performing the
analyses described in the manuscript as well as model output objects.
Please read the manuscript and supplementary material, and the READ_ME
file included with this dataset.