10.5061/DRYAD.CV24C
Visser, Marcel E.
Nederlands Instituut voor Ecologie
Gienapp, Phillip
Nederlands Instituut voor Ecologie
Husby, Arild
University of Helsinki
Norwegian University of Science and Technology
Morrisey, Michael
University of St Andrews
de la Hera, Iván
Nederlands Instituut voor Ecologie
University of the Basque Country
Pulido, Francisco
Nederlands Instituut voor Ecologie
Complutense University of Madrid
Both, Christiaan
Nederlands Instituut voor Ecologie
University of Groningen
Data from: Effects of spring temperatures on the strength of selection on
timing of reproduction in a long-distance migratory bird
Dryad
dataset
2015
Ficedula hypoleuca
selective agent
pied flycatcher
Timing of reproduction
2015-08-18T14:23:34Z
2015-08-18T14:23:34Z
en
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pbio.1002120
136405 bytes
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CC0 1.0 Universal (CC0 1.0) Public Domain Dedication
Climate change has differentially affected the timing of seasonal events
for interacting trophic levels, and this has often led to increased
selection on seasonal timing. Yet, the environmental variables driving
this selection have rarely been identified, limiting our ability to
predict future ecological impacts of climate change. Using a dataset
spanning 31 years from a natural population of pied flycatchers (Ficedula
hypoleuca), we show that directional selection on timing of reproduction
intensified in the first two decades (1980–2000) but weakened during the
last decade (2001–2010). Against expectation, this pattern could not be
explained by the temporal variation in the phenological mismatch with food
abundance. We therefore explored an alternative hypothesis that selection
on timing was affected by conditions individuals experience when arriving
in spring at the breeding grounds: arriving early in cold conditions may
reduce survival. First, we show that in female recruits, spring arrival
date in the first breeding year correlates positively with hatch date;
hence, early-hatched individuals experience colder conditions at arrival
than late-hatched individuals. Second, we show that when temperatures at
arrival in the recruitment year were high, early-hatched young had a
higher recruitment probability than when temperatures were low. We
interpret this as a potential cost of arriving early in colder years, and
climate warming may have reduced this cost. We thus show that higher
temperatures in the arrival year of recruits were associated with stronger
selection for early reproduction in the years these birds were born. As
arrival temperatures in the beginning of the study increased, but recently
declined again, directional selection on timing of reproduction showed a
nonlinear change. We demonstrate that environmental conditions with a lag
of up to two years can alter selection on phenological traits in natural
populations, something that has important implications for our
understanding of how climate can alter patterns of selection in natural
populations.
Data from: Effects of spring temperatures on the strength of selection on
timing of reproduction in a long-distance migratory birdData on pied
flycatcher breeding, incl lay date, number of offspring produced and
biotic and abiotic environmental variablesdata_breed.txt
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