10.5061/DRYAD.C5G9S
Seidl, Rupert
University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences
Müller, Jörg
Technical University Munich
Bavarian Forest National Park
Hothorn, Torsten
University of Zurich
Bässler, Claus
Bavarian Forest National Park
Heurich, Marco
Bavarian Forest National Park
Kautz, Markus
Karlsruhe Institute of Technology
Data from: Small beetle, large-scale drivers: how regional and landscape
factors affect outbreaks of the European spruce bark beetle
Dryad
dataset
2016
landscape connectivity
bark beetle infestation risk
multi-scale analysis
spatial synchrony
forest disturbance dynamics
large-scale control
Picea abies
Ips typographus
2016-09-16T00:00:00Z
2016-09-16T00:00:00Z
en
https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2664.12540
284459158 bytes
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CC0 1.0 Universal (CC0 1.0) Public Domain Dedication
Unprecedented bark beetle outbreaks have been observed for a variety of
forest ecosystems recently, and damage is expected to further intensify as
a consequence of climate change. In Central Europe, the response of
ecosystem management to increasing infestation risk has hitherto focused
largely on the stand level, while the contingency of outbreak dynamics on
large-scale drivers remains poorly understood. To investigate how factors
beyond the local scale contribute to the infestation risk from Ips
typographus (Col., Scol.), we analysed drivers across seven orders of
magnitude in scale (from 103 to 1010 m²) over a 23-year period, focusing
on the Bavarian Forest National Park. Time-discrete hazard modelling was
used to account for local factors and temporal dependencies. Subsequently,
beta regression was applied to determine the influence of regional and
landscape factors, the latter characterized by means of graph theory. We
found that in addition to stand variables, large-scale drivers also
strongly influenced bark beetle infestation risk. Outbreak waves were
closely related to landscape-scale connectedness of both host and beetle
populations as well as to regional bark beetle infestation levels.
Furthermore, regional summer drought was identified as an important
trigger for infestation pulses. Large-scale synchrony and connectivity are
thus key drivers of the recently observed bark beetle outbreak in the
area. Synthesis and applications. Our multiscale analysis provides
evidence that the risk for biotic disturbances is highly dependent on
drivers beyond the control of traditional stand-scale management. This
finding highlights the importance of fostering the ability to cope with
and recover from disturbance. It furthermore suggests that a stronger
consideration of landscape and regional processes is needed to address
changing disturbance regimes in ecosystem management.
Multiscale bark beetle disturbance datadata.txt
Bavarian Forest National Park
Central Europe