10.5061/DRYAD.B4217
Krüger, Lucas
University of Coimbra
Ramos, J. A.
University of Coimbra
Xavier, J. C.
University of Coimbra
Grémillet, D.
French National Centre for Scientific Research
González-Solís, J.
University of Barcelona
Petry, M. V.
Universidade do Vale do Rio dos Sinos
Phillips, R. A.
British Antarctic Survey
Wanless, R. M.
University of Cape Town
Paiva, V. H.
University of Coimbra
Data from: Projected distributions of Southern Ocean albatrosses, petrels
and fisheries as a consequence of climatic change
Dryad
dataset
2017
Representative Concentration Pathways
Thalassarche melanophris
Macronectes giganteus
Geographic Information System
Diomedea dabbenena
Diomedea exulans
Procellaria aequinoctialis
Thalassarche chrysostoma
Macronectes halli
2017-03-16T14:18:24Z
2017-03-16T14:18:24Z
en
https://doi.org/10.1111/ecog.02590
5718115 bytes
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CC0 1.0 Universal (CC0 1.0) Public Domain Dedication
Given the major ongoing influence of environmental change on the oceans,
there is a need to understand and predict the future distributions of
marine species in order to plan appropriate mitigation to conserve
vulnerable species and ecosystems. In this study we use tracking data from
seven large seabird species of the Southern Ocean (Black-browed Albatross
Thalassarche melanophris, Grey-headed Albatross T. chrysostoma, Northern
Giant Petrel Macronectes halli, Southern Giant Petrel M. giganteus,
Tristan Albatross Diomedea dabbenena Wandering Albatross D. exulans and
White-chinned Petrel Procellaria aequinoctialis , and on fishing effort in
two types of fisheries (characterised by low or high-bycatch rates), to
model the associations with environmental variables (bathymetry,
chlorophyll-a concentration, sea surface temperature and wind speed)
through ensemble Species Distribution Models. We then project these
distributions according to four climate change scenarios built by the
Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change for 2050 and 2100. The
resulting projections were consistent across scenarios, indicating that
there is a strong likelihood of poleward shifts in distribution of
seabirds, and several range contractions (resulting from a shift in the
northern, but no change in the southern limit of the range in four
species). Current trends for southerly shifts in fisheries distributions
are also set to continue under these climate change scenarios at least
until 2100; some of these may reflect habitat loss for target species that
are already over-fished. It is of particular concern that a shift in the
distribution of several highly threatened seabird species would increase
their overlap with fisheries where there is a high-bycatch risk. Under
such scenarios, the associated shifts in distribution of seabirds and
increases in bycatch risk will require much-improved fisheries management
in these sensitive areas to minimise impacts on populations in decline.
Data for Krüger et al. 2017 DOI: 10.1111/ecog.02590The zip file contains
eight folders, one with the environmental data used for modelling (Sea
Surface Temperature SST, Chlorophyll CHLOR, Wind Speed WIND, Sea Ice Cover
ICE, Bathymetry BATH) and their projections for each representative
concentration pathways (RCPs) for 2050 and 2100. One folder with the
distribution of fisheries types in .csv (geographic coordinate system,
WGS84) and geotiff images for the species and fisheries distribution
models (files with the name pred) and projections for each scenario. Also
the scripts used for SDMs and GWPCA are presented in the
file.kruger_ecog02590.zip
Southern Hemisphere Oceans