10.5061/DRYAD.9PH68
Vieilledent, Ghislain
Cirad - UPR BSEF; F-34398 Montpellier France
Gardi, Oliver
Bern University of Applied Sciences
Grinand, Clovis
ETC Terra; F-75020 Paris France
Burren, Christian
Wildlife Conservation Society; Soavimbahoaka; 101 Antananarivo Madagascar
Andriamanjato, Mamitiana
Ministère de l'Environnement et des Forêts - Direction Générale des
Forêts; 101 Antananarivo Madagascar
Camara, Christian
Missouri Botanical Garden
Gardner, Charlie J.
University of Kent
Glass, Leah
Blue Ventures
Rasolohery, Andriambolantsoa
Conservation International
Ratsimba, Harifidy
ONE; Antaninarenina, BP 822; 101 Antananarivo Madagascar
Gond, Valéry
Cirad - UPR BSEF; F-34398 Montpellier France
Rakotoarijaona, Jean-Roger
ONE; Antaninarenina, BP 822; 101 Antananarivo Madagascar
Data from: Bioclimatic envelope models predict a decrease in tropical
forest carbon stocks with climate change in Madagascar
Dryad
dataset
2017
species shifting
tree height
Madagascar
REDD+
MODIS
Deforestation
2017-01-12T00:00:00Z
2017-01-12T00:00:00Z
en
https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2745.12548
1014303752 bytes
1
CC0 1.0 Universal (CC0 1.0) Public Domain Dedication
1. Recent studies have underlined the importance of climatic variables in
determining tree height and biomass in tropical forests. Nonetheless, the
effects of climate on tropical forest carbon stocks remain uncertain. In
particular, the application of process-based dynamic global vegetation
models have led to contrasting conclusions regarding the potential impact
of climate change on tropical forest carbon storage. 2. Using a
correlative approach based on a bioclimatic envelope model and data from
1771 forest plots inventoried during the period 1996-2013 in Madagascar
over a large climatic gradient, we show that temperature seasonality,
annual precipitation and mean annual temperature are key variables in
determining forest aboveground carbon density. 3. Taking into account the
explicative climate variables, we obtained an accurate (R2 = 70% and RMSE
= 40 Mg.ha-1) forest carbon map for Madagascar at 250 m resolution for the
year 2010. This national map was more accurate than previously published
global carbon maps (R 2 ≤ 26% and RMSE ≥ 63 Mg.ha −1 ). 4. Combining our
model with the climatic projections for Madagascar from seven IPCC CMIP5
global climate models following the RCP 8.5, we forecast an average forest
carbon stock loss of 17% (range: 7-24%) by the year 2080. For comparison,
a spatially homogeneous deforestation of 0.5% per year on the same period
would lead to a loss of 30% of the forest carbon stock. 5. Synthesis: Our
study shows that climate change is likely to induce a decrease in tropical
forest carbon stocks. This loss could be due to a decrease in the average
tree size and to shifts in tree species distribution, with the selection
of small-statured species. In Madagascar, climate-induced carbon emissions
might be, at least, of the same order of magnitude as emissions associated
to anthropogenic deforestation.
Above-ground carbon density (ACD) dataThis file includes the geographical
coordinates and above-ground carbon density (ACD in Mg.ha-1) of 1771
forest plots in Madagascar.ACD.csvNational forest carbon map for
MadagascarNational forest carbon map at 250m for Madagascar for the year
2010. GeoTIFF raster file, 4.2 Mo, EPSG: 32738, 250m resolution,
Int16.ACD_for10.tifNational carbon map for MadagascarNational carbon map
for Madagascar for the year 2010. GeoTIFF raster file, 12.4 Mo, EPSG:
32738, 250m resolution, Int16. This map doesn't take into account the
forest mask for the year 2010.ACD_RF_2010.tifRandom Forests modelRandom
Forests model used to derive the national forest carbon map. R data file
(.rda), 4.7 Mo.RFmodel.rdaClimatic projections for MadagascarClimatic
projections from seven IPCC CMIP5 global climate models (GCMs) for years
2050 and 2080 following two representative concentration pathways (RCPs):
RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. The seven GCMs are: ACCESS 1.0 (ac), CCSM4 (cc),
GISS-E2-R (gs), HadGEM2-ES (he), IPSL-CM5A-LR (ip), MIROC5 (mc) and
NorESM1-M (no). The projections are for the following bioclimatic
variables: bio1=mean annual temperature, bio4=temperature seasonality,
bio12=annual precipitation.climproj.zipShapefile of Madagascar
ecoregionsShapefile of Madagascar ecoregions. Code: 1=spiny, 2=mangrove,
3=moist, 4=dry.ecoregions_shp.zipMultiband raster of explicative
variables.Multiband raster of explicative variables for the ACD model. The
raster includes the following bands: elevation, EVI, VCF, mean annual
temperature, temperature seasonality and annual precipitation. EVI is
scaled between 0 and 10000 so that the raster type can be
"INT2S". EVI must be rescaled between 0 and 1 to be used with
the Random Forests model.Xvar.tifMultiband raster for computing ACD by
forest typeMultiband raster for computing ACD by forest type. The raster
includes four bands for: Madagascar forest extent in 2010, ecoregions,
Saatchi's carbon map and Baccini's biomass map.Zvar.tifR script
for reproducibilityThe R script can be used to reproduce the results of
the study. Associated data are available on the Dryad repository. Load the
data in your working directory and create a "./results"
directory to save the outputs.Carbonmap_Madagascar_Vieilledent2016_JoE.R
Madagascar