10.5061/DRYAD.88ND5
Di Fonzo, Martina M. I.
Zoological Society of London
Imperial College London
University of Queensland
Collen, Ben
University College London
Chauvenet, Alienor L. M.
University of Queensland
Mace, Georgina M.
Imperial College London
University College London
Data from: Patterns of mammalian population decline inform conservation action
Dryad
dataset
2017
indicator
Time series analysis
1950-present
population decline
Monitoring
Indicators
Extinction risk
Mammalia
management
trigger point
Holocene
early-warning signal
time-series analysis
2017-03-10T00:00:00Z
en
https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2664.12659
305264 bytes
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CC0 1.0 Universal (CC0 1.0) Public Domain Dedication
1. Evaluations of wildlife population dynamics have the potential to
convey valuable information on the type of pressure affecting a population
and could help predict future changes in the population's trajectory.
Greater understanding of different patterns of population declines could
provide a useful mechanism for assessing decline severity in the wild and
identifying those populations that are more likely to exhibit severe
declines. 2. We identified 93 incidences of decline within 75 populations
of mammalian species using a time-series analysis method. These included:
linear, quadratic convex (accelerating) declines, exponential concave
(decelerating) declines, and quadratic concave declines (representing
recovering populations). Excluding linear declines left a dataset of 85
declines to model the relationship between each decline-curve type and a
range of biological, anthropogenic, and time-series descriptor explanatory
variables. 3. None of the decline-curve types were spatially or
phylogenetically clustered. The only characteristic that could be
consistently associated with any curve-type was the time at which they
were more likely to occur within a time-series. Quadratic convex declines
were more likely to occur at the start of the time-series, while
recovering curve shapes (quadratic concave declines) were more likely at
the end of the time-series. 4. Synthesis and applications: The ability to
link certain factors with specific decline dynamics across a number of
mammalian populations is useful for management purposes as it provides
decision-makers with potential triggers upon which to base their
conservation actions. We propose that the identification of quadratic
convex declines could be used as an early-warning signal of potentially
severe decline dynamics. For such populations, increased population
monitoring effort should be deployed to diagnose the cause of its decline
and avert possible extinctions. Conversely, the presence of a quadratic
concave decline suggests that the population has already undergone a
period of serious decline but is now in the process of recovery. Such
populations will require different types of conservation actions, focussed
on enhancing their chances of recovery.
Raw time-series data75 high quality mammalian population time series,
representing 33 species, spanning six orders, drawn from the Living Planet
Index vertebrate population abundance data base. The first column
represents the years over which monitoring took place, and all subsequent
columns represent the abundance of different population IDs.Di Fonzo_Raw
time-series analysis.csvKalman-filtered time-seriesThe first column
represents the years over which monitoring took place, and all subsequent
columns represent the abundance of different population IDs, following the
application of the Kalman filter (to account for potential sources of
uncertainty arising from count errors).Di Fonzo_Raw time-series
analysis_Kalman.csvDecline-curve data set for comparative analysesDataset
used for generalized linear mixed modelling of decline curve-type. Please
see the ReadMe file for further descriptions of each column title.Di
Fonzo_Decline-curve data_comparative.csvDi Fonzo Dryad ReadMe file.pdf
World