10.5061/DRYAD.7PVMCVDPZ
Kharouba, Heather
0000-0002-3250-9253
University of Ottawa
Wolkovich, Elizabeth
University of British Columbia
Disconnects between ecological theory and data in phenological mismatch
research
Dryad
dataset
2020
Cushing match-mismatch hypothesis
2020-05-20T00:00:00Z
2020-05-20T00:00:00Z
en
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-0752-x
2988 bytes
3
CC0 1.0 Universal (CC0 1.0) Public Domain Dedication
Climate change may lead to phenological mismatches, where the timing of
critical events between interacting species becomes de-synchronized, with
potential negative consequences. Evidence documenting negative impacts on
fitness is mixed. The Cushing match-mismatch hypothesis, the most common
hypothesis underlying these studies, offers testable assumptions and
predictions to determine consequences of phenological mismatch when
combined with a pre-climate change baseline. Here, we highlight how
improved approaches could rapidly advance mechanistic understanding. We
find that currently no study has collected the data required to test this
hypothesis well, and 71% of studies fail to define a baseline. Experiments
that clearly link timing to fitness and test extremes, integration across
approaches, and null models would aid robust predictions of shifts with
climate change.
We located papers relating phenological data from trophic interactions to
fitness and/or performance of the consumer and/or the resource by
conducting keyword searches in ISI Web of Science published up to June
2017. Keywords included phenolog* AND mismatch* OR synchron* AND interact*
AND (fitness* OR performance*). If more than one measure of phenology was
included, we chose the one used by the authors to calculate mismatch and
examine its impact on performance. Our final review included 42 studies
with 45 pair-wise species interactions (3 studies had 2
interactions). Based on the type of data collected for the consumer and
resource, we classified studies as life history (i.e. one that collected
data at the individual level) or one that collected data at the population
or community (i.e., across species). To determine whether studies had the
potential to define pre-climate change baselines, we measured the study’s
time span and years of data based on the years where phenology data was
available for both the consumer and resource, and consumer performance
data was available.
Each observation is an individual pair-wise species interaction.