10.5061/DRYAD.70RXWDBV5
Santamaria-Holek, I.
0000-0002-5306-197X
National Autonomous University of Mexico
Castaño, V. M.
National Autonomous University of Mexico
Supplementary material from "Possible fates of the dispersion of
SARS-COV-2 in the Mexican context"
Dryad
dataset
2020
social-ecological system
multicompartmental model
economic pressure
Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México
https://ror.org/01tmp8f25
IN117419
2020-09-11T00:00:00Z
2020-09-11T00:00:00Z
en
2925416 bytes
8
CC0 1.0 Universal (CC0 1.0) Public Domain Dedication
The determination of the adequate time for house confinement and when
social distancing restrictions should end are now two of the main
challenges that any country has to face in an effective battle against.
The possibility of a new outbreak of the pandemic and how to avoid it is,
nowadays, one of the primary objectives of epidemiological research. In
this work, we go deep in this subject by presenting an innovative
compartmental model, that explicitly introduces the number of active
cases, and employing it as a conceptual tool to explore the possible fates
of the dispersion of SARS-COV-2 in the Mexican context. We incorporated
the impact of starting, inattention, and end of restrictive social
policies on the time evolution of the pandemics via time-in-run
corrections to the infection rates. The magnitude and impact on the
epidemic due to post-social restrictive policies are also studied. The
scenarios generated by the model can help authorities to determine an
adequate time and population load that may be allowed to reassume normal
activities.
The data of confirmed cases, recovered individuals, and the number of
deaths was collected from:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Mexico and
https://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pandemia_de_enfermedad_por_coronavirus_de_2020_en_México These sites offer a succinct and comprehensible presentation of the data as well as a timeline of the data. Included are also other graphics and useful information. The data in this notebook is included as a table of days and case numbers (confirmed, recovered, and deaths) which is actualized manually. Different colors indicate some tendency to change the data. All data used in the program solving the differential equations of the model are included in the following sets : DatosAcumuladosDias = Data of the number of cumulated cases in days DatosRecuperadosDias = Data of recovered individuals in days DatosFallecidosDias = Data of the number of deaths in days After this input, the sets are converted to a number of days and two subsidiary sets are calculated: CASOSporDIAresta = Data of the Daily cases CasosACTIVOS = Data of the Pre-recovered active cases Date notation was changed to the number of days to make them compatible with the results of the numerical solution of the set of differential equations. The number of active cases was calculated by subtraction of the recovered and death populations from the cumulative number of cases. The daily cases were calculated by the difference between the cumulative number of cases in two consecutive days.
The program is done in a Wolfram Mathematica notebook (11.3.0.0) and is
self-contained up to September 7, which is the day of the last
actualization of the data. The notebook is separated into sections and
consists of two main parts: data and model. The data part contains the
tables of data of the pandemic. Successive actualization should be done by
hand. The model part contains four programs (identical) embedded into a
Manipulate command that facilitates the use of the equations when doing
the fit of the data. The difference among the programs is the number of
susceptible individuals and, therefore, the transmission constants ke, ki,
and kv. The other parameters are equal and had remained fixed since July.
Model sections are indicated by colors and the number of susceptible
individuals. Sections including summaries of the plots are also included
for comparison. The fit up to this day may be done by increasing the
original number of susceptible individuals from 185 thousand to 900
thousand, 1.5millions, 3millions, and 4.5 million. Each case is treated
separately. This implies that the rates ki, ke and kv should decrease.
Data fixed in the Manipulate keyboard originally corresponded to those
allowing the best fit until May 19 2020. We have prevented that some of
those values can change with time. The new version of the code has a data
actualization until September 7. The last improvements of the fits only
required modification of the initial estimation of the total number of
susceptible individuals. Transmission rate constants should be varied by
the last decimal value since the system of equations is very sensitive to
those values.