10.5061/DRYAD.5G0RG
Lee, Aline Magdalena
Norwegian University of Science and Technology
Sæther, Bernt-Erik
Norwegian University of Science and Technology
Markussen, Stine Svalheim
Norwegian University of Science and Technology
Engen, Steinar
Norwegian University of Science and Technology
Saether, Bernt-Erik
Norwegian University of Science and Technology
Data from: Modeling time to population extinction when individual
reproduction is autocorrelated
Dryad
dataset
2018
reproductive autocorrelation
age structure
Demographic Stochasticity
Alces alces
matrix model
dynamic heterogeneity
Moose
2018-08-14T00:00:00Z
2018-08-14T00:00:00Z
en
https://doi.org/10.1111/ele.12834
4334 bytes
1
CC0 1.0 Universal (CC0 1.0) Public Domain Dedication
In nature, individual reproductive success is seldom independent from year
to year, due to factors such as reproductive costs and individual
heterogeneity. However, population projection models that incorporate
temporal autocorrelations in individual reproduction can be difficult to
parameterize, particularly when data are sparse. We therefore examine
whether such models are necessary to avoid biased estimates of stochastic
population growth and extinction risk, by comparing output from a matrix
population model that incorporates reproductive autocorrelations to output
from a standard age-structured matrix model that does not. We use a range
of parameterizations, including a case study using moose data, treating
probabilities of switching reproductive class as either fixed or
fluctuating. Expected time to extinction from the two models is found to
differ by only small amounts (under 10%) for most parameterizations,
indicating that explicitly accounting for individual reproductive
autocorrelations is in most cases not necessary to avoid bias in
extinction estimates.
Individual histories for moose at Vega 1984-2012Individual reproductive
and survival histories for female moose at Vega 1984-2012. Numbers
according to states: 1: Produced 0 calves, 2: Produced 1 calf, 3: Produced
2 calves, 4: Hunted, and 5: Natural death.Vegafemc190515.txt
Vega
Norway