10.5061/DRYAD.4K25M2Q
Chang, Joshua C.
National Institutes of Health
Data from: Predictive Bayesian selection of multistep Markov chains,
applied to the detection of the hot hand and other statistical
dependencies in free throws
Dryad
dataset
2019
Markov chain
Bayesian
Hot hand
2019-02-25T18:04:02Z
2019-02-25T18:04:02Z
en
https://doi.org/10.1098/rsos.182174
6639869 bytes
1
CC0 1.0 Universal (CC0 1.0) Public Domain Dedication
When extended to data from the 2016--2017 NBA season specifically for
LeBron James, a model depending on the previous shot (single-step
Markovian) does not clearly beat a model with independent outcomes. An
error-correcting variable length model of two parameters, where James
shoots a higher percentage after a missed free throw than otherwise, is
more predictive than either model.
Free throw trajectoriesEach game is a trajectory where + is a make and -
is a miss.game_freethrows.csv