10.5061/DRYAD.02R66
Crozier, Lisa G.
Northwest Fisheries Science Center
Scheuerell, Mark D.
Northwest Fisheries Science Center
Zabel, Richard W.
Northwest Fisheries Science Center
Data from: Using time series analysis to characterize evolutionary and
plastic responses to environmental change: a case study of a shift toward
earlier migration date in sockeye salmon
Dryad
dataset
2020
Oncorhynchus nerka
Streams/rivers
Migration
Phenotypic Plasticity
statistics
Selection: natural
ocean
Fish
Modeling: ecological
Holocene
Ecology: behavioral
en
https://doi.org/10.1086/662669
11058 bytes
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CC0 1.0 Universal (CC0 1.0) Public Domain Dedication
Environmental change can shift the phenotype of an organism through either
evolutionary or nongenetic processes. Despite abundant evidence of
phenotypic change in response to recent climate change, we typically lack
sufficient genetic data to identify the role of evolution. We present a
method of using phenotypic data to characterize the hypothesized role of
natural selection and environmentally driven phenotypic shifts
(plasticity). We modeled historical selection and environmental predictors
of interannual variation in mean population phenotype using a multivariate
state-space model framework. Through model comparisons, we assessed the
extent to which an estimated selection differential explained observed
variation better than environmental factors alone. We applied the method
to a 60-year trend toward earlier migration in Columbia River sockeye
salmon Oncorhynchus nerka, producing estimates of annual selection
differentials, average realized heritability, and relative cumulative
effects of selection and plasticity. We found that an evolutionary
response to thermal selection was capable of explaining up to two-thirds
of the phenotypic trend. Adaptive plastic responses to June river flow
explain most of the remainder. This method is applicable to other
populations with time series data if selection differentials are available
or can be reconstructed. This method thus augments our toolbox for
predicting responses to environmental change.
sockeye.datafileThis data comes primarily from the Columbia River DART
database managed by the University of Washington
(http://www.cbr.washington.edu/dart/dart.html). Column headings: Y=Year of
adult migration; D=median migrate date of adult sockeye salmon (DART);
S1997=selection differential calculated in R based on the selection
function fit to 1997 mark-recapture data; F=mean June flow in cms at
Bonneville Dam (DART); FP=day of maximum flow in Julian days, calculated
from daily flow data from DART; T=mean June temperature at Bonneville
Dam(DART); Umar, Uap,Umay=Upwelling index for March, April, and May at 45N
from Pacific Fisheries Environmental Laboratory. 2008. Upwelling Index.
Environmental Research Division, NOAA-Fisheries, SWFSC
http://www.pfeg.noaa.gov/javamenu.html, accessed June 2008. WRI=total
sockeye count at Wells Dam divided by the total count at Rock Island Dam
(DART); PDO=Index of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation averaged from Dec-Jun
from Mantua, N. 2005. PDO Index,
http://jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest; NPGO=Di Lorenzo, E., N.
Schneider, K. M. Cobb, K. Chhak, P. J. S. Franks, A. J. Miller, J. C.
McWilliams et al. 2008. North Pacific Gyre Oscillation NPGO Index
available at http://eros.eas.gatech.edu/npgo/; NPI= North Pacific Index,
from Trenberth, K., and J. Hurrell. 2009. Boulder, USA, Climate Analysis
Section, NCAR. The next set of columns are the difference in the index
from year t-4 to year t, except for S4, which is simply shifted by 4
years. CumS4 reflects the cumulative selection at 4-generation intervals
up to that year. D.sd is the standard deviation of the migration period,
and betaS is the selection differential standardized by the standard
deviation of the trait (i.e., D.sd)
USA
Columbia River
Pacific Northwest